The Noble Lie

In this dark new age of asymmetric warfare, this talk couldn’t be more timely.

In this TED talk, Sean Gourley develops a mathematical model to examine the composition and level of organization of insurgents in Iraq based on the timing and number of deaths in the conflict. Applying this research to other resistance situations, he stumbles across the ideal “resistance coefficient” with an alpha of 2.5, a group size and composition ideal for enabling the conflict to continue.

Alpha lower than 2.5 indicates a larger, more stable, more organized resistance that can more easily be talked to, negotiated with, bought off, infiltrated, supplied with a leader, and so on. Sinking alpha indicates resistance groups are coalescing and uniting. Alpha higher than 2.5 indicates groups that are too small and fractured to be of any real effectiveness. Rising alpha indicates the Balkanization and fracturing of groups, divide and conquer.

This suggests there are ideal group sizes and structures for resistance movements that endure. I’d like to tell you what that ideal size and structure is, but my application to the School of the Americas was denied.

This is a very basic example of the power of informatics that can come by examining aggregate group data. There is nothing new about this field of study, in warfare or other areas. Because of this fact, I’m very interested in the revelation that our actions in Iraq keep the resistance moving back towards that “sweet spot” of 2.5. Our military industrial complex is either doing everything wrong, or they’re doing everything very right (depending on the ultimate goal- hegemony or destabilization).

This informatics stuff ties right into my day job. I am fascinated by this field of study, especially when applied to human services, but unnerved by its potential to ignore and make invisible the individual person. Especially in human services, one must be able to see the trees from the forest.

Once upon a time, Donald Duck communed with a spirit to learn the mysteries of Pythagoras and the secrets of the ages. He joined the Pythagorean order and studied the great liberal sciences of arithmetic, geometry, and music.

Very brief and possibly cryptic notes behind the cut.

Part 1

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This talk is very fascinating. One of the most eminent voices in the scientific establishment expresses some of the strangeness in science, ideas like quantum physics, evolution, and atomism, which defy intuition.

What Dawkins doesn’t mention, but definitely knows, is that some of these ideas were not discovered by modern science but are as old as ancient Greece. The notion that all solid matter is mostly empty space, made up of building blocks called atoms, came from the philosopher Democritus.

One day, I will line out the progression from the Royal Society (the science club of Dawkins, Darwin, and all of the big British establishment scientists) to the secret society they claim as their predecessors, the “Invisible College” of the Rosicrucians.

It’s also interesting that Dawkins uses the metaphor “middle world” because both “Middle World” and “Middle Earth” are esoteric references to very old notions about our world – hanging by a thread between Heaven and Hell, between perfect Order and swirling Chaos, where Spirit and Matter collide.

Links

• Democritus [Wikipedia]

This is classic Richard Dawkins from the 80s. In the video, he talks about evolution, gradual development of complex organs, computer-generated biomorphs, and the future of technology and learning computers using natural selection as a model. Though a bit dated, this is still fascinating stuff.

If the topics covered on this weblog have interested you so far, I thought you might be interested in this collection of DVDs that are not available for online viewing.

People have to make a living. Unfortunately, the people who need this information most will be the hardest-pressed to afford it. If you can, buy these materials, show them to people you know, and spread the word. Here, I am simply linking to their websites so you can learn more from the horse’s mouth.

• The Future of Food
• Fahrenheit 9/11
• ACLU Freedom Files
• In Debt We Trust
• Secret Mysteries of America’s Beginnings
• Richard Dawkins – Growing Up in the Universe

If you have any good DVD documentary picks, list them in the comments section.