The Noble Lie

Australian researcher and flu expert Adrain Gibbs has said that, while there are many possible origins for such a flu, the most likely based on its characteristics is that of an "escaped strain" from a lab. He is planning to publish his findings soon.

The claim is at least valid enough to warrant an investigation, and in fact one is taking place now. According to the Edmonton Sun, the World Health Organization is officially investigating claims that the H1N1 swine flu virus is a laboratory strain.

From the article:

TORONTO — The World Health Organization and leading influenza research groups are investigating unpublished claims that the new H1N1 swine flu virus may have evolved in a laboratory, not in nature.

The Geneva-based agency was informed of the pending publication over the weekend by the author, a retired Australian virologist named Adrian Gibbs.

It scrambled to draw in researchers from leading human and animal influenza laboratories around the world in a bid to determine if the claim has merit and if it does, whether that changes the advice WHO gives member countries on the threat posed by the new H1N1 swine flu virus.

The WHO’s leading flu scientist said the consultation is still ongoing and a conclusion hasn’t been reached, but the weight of evidence so far suggests the theory isn’t correct.

“I think the preliminary analyses certainly suggest there are other explanations and that the explanation suggested by the author is not the best one,” Dr. Keiji Fukuda, acting assistant director general for health security and environment, said in an interview from Geneva.

Fukuda said at least one WHO collaborating centre for influenza, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta, has done an extensive analysis of available genetic sequence data for swine influenza viruses. That work does not support the claim made by Gibbs, he said.

Another interesting bit:

Gibbs apparently claims that the virus bears the hallmarks of having undergone “accelerated evolution” such as what happens when flu viruses try to adapt to growth in eggs.

But the head of the CDC’s influenza division, Dr. Nancy Cox, said her labs and others cannot find evidence to support the claim that the virus has undergone accelerated evolution.

Italian influenza researcher Dr. Ilaria Capua said there is too little known about swine influenza virus evolution to make the claim in the first place.